RVIA Shipments

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RVIA Reports Wholesale Shipments for October

The Recreational Vehicle Industry Association reported wholesale shipments of 16,600 units in October, up 23.0% from the same period in 2008. Shipments continue to show a positive trend towards recovery. This is the third month in a row that unit shipments, led by towables, have grown year-on-year. Motorized units also are trending back towards growth and continue to be the hardest hit segment of the market.

RV Investor has forecast wholesale shipments below 100,000 in 2009 making it the worst year since 1980. However, the industry has recovered faster than we expected and it looks like total shipments for 2009 will reach around 170,000 units.

According to the RVIA, RV shipments are projected to total 185,800 units in 2010, a 26.5% increase from the projected 2009 total, according to RV industry analyst and director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan Dr. Richard Curtin. Gains are expected over the next two years as negative financial factors give way to improved market conditions. RV Investor will release its forecast for 2010 in December.

RV Wholesale Unit Shipments 2009

	2009 Q1			Q2			Q3			Q4			YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Motorized
Motorhome (Class A)	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.8			4.5
Van Conversion (Class B)	0.1	-	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1			1.0
Mini-Motorhome (Class C)	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.6			4.6
Motorized Total	0.7	0.7	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.0	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.5	-	-	10.1
Towables
Travel Trailers	4.3	6.2	7.7	7.9	7.9	10.1	8.5	11.1	11.3	9.8			84.8
5th Wheels	1.4	2.4	2.8	2.9	2.7	3.1	2.7	4.2	3.7	4.2			30.1
Folding Camper	0.8	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.2	0.9	0.9			11.0
Truck Campers	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2			1.7
Towables Total	6.6	9.6	11.8	12.3	12.1	14.7	12.6	16.7	16.1	15.1	-	-	127.6
RV Total Units 2009	7.3	10.3	12.5	13.3	13.3	15.7	13.5	17.8	17.4	16.6	-	-	137.7

	2009 Q1			Q2			Q3			Q4			YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Motorized	0.7	0.7	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.0	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.5	-	-	10.1
Towable	6.6	9.6	11.8	12.3	12.1	14.7	12.6	16.7	16.1	15.1	-	-	127.6
Total Units 2009	7.3	10.3	12.5	13.3	13.3	15.7	13.5	17.8	17.4	16.6	-	-	137.7
Source: RVIA 2009


Δ% from Previous Year	2009 Q1			Q2			Q3			Q4			YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Motorized
Motorhome (Class A)	-77.8%	-83.3%	-82.6%	-83.3%	-66.7%	-71.4%	-55.6%	-44.4%	-40.0%	-20.0%			-68.1%
Van Conversion (Class B)	-50.0%	-100.0%	-50.0%	-66.7%	-50.0%	-50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%	100.0%	0.0%			-44.4%
Mini-Motorhome (Class C)	-84.6%	-73.3%	-88.2%	-68.4%	-46.2%	-50.0%	-33.3%	-16.7%	-16.7%	20.0%			-58.2%
Motorized Total	-78.8%	-80.0%	-83.3%	-75.0%	-55.6%	-61.5%	-43.8%	-35.3%	-23.5%	-6.3%			-62.5%
Towables
Travel Trailers	-66.4%	-58.1%	-51.6%	-52.4%	-41.5%	-23.5%	-10.5%	20.7%	31.4%	32.4%			-30.2%
5th Wheels	-76.3%	-64.7%	-62.2%	-59.2%	-55.0%	-43.6%	-38.6%	0.0%	-2.6%	35.5%			-44.5%
Folding Camper	-65.2%	-55.0%	-45.0%	-58.1%	-43.5%	-27.8%	18.2%	-20.0%	0.0%	-25.0%			-39.6%
Truck Campers	-83.3%	-80.0%	-66.7%	-66.7%	-60.0%	-50.0%	-80.0%	-33.3%	-50.0%	0.0%			-63.0%
Towables Total	-69.4%	-60.2%	-54.4%	-55.1%	-45.7%	-29.7%	-18.7%	9.9%	17.5%	26.9%			-35.7%
RV Total Units	-70.7%	-62.7%	-58.5%	-57.6%	-46.8%	-33.2%	-21.1%	5.3%	13.0%	23.0%			-38.9%

	2009 Q1			Q2	Q3					Q4			YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Motorized	-78.8%	-80.0%	-83.3%	-75.0%	-55.6%	-61.5%	-43.8%	-35.3%	-23.5%	-6.3%			-62.5%
Towable	-69.4%	-60.2%	-54.4%	-55.1%	-45.7%	-29.7%	-18.7%	9.9%	17.5%	26.9%			-35.7%
Total Units	-70.7%	-62.7%	-58.5%	-57.6%	-46.8%	-33.2%	-21.1%	5.3%	13.0%	23.0%			-38.9%
Source: RVIA 2009

RV Wholesale Unit Shipments 1995 - 2008

	Calendar Year														Annual Growth Rate '08
RV Wholesale Units (K)	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	1 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Motorized
Motorhome (Class A)	33.0	36.5	37.6	42.9	49.4	41.0	33.4	39.6	41.5	46.3	37.9	32.4	32.9	14.9	-54.7%	-18.5%	-10.0%
Van Conversion (Class B)	4.1	4.1	3.8	3.6	3.6	3.4	2.6	2.8	2.1	2.5	2.6	2.8	3.1	1.9	-38.7%	-2.0%	-6.2%
Mini-Motorhome (Class C)	15.7	14.7	13.6	17.0	18.6	16.5	13.2	18.0	18.3	23.0	20.9	20.9	19.4	11.5	-40.7%	-8.9%	-3.8%
Motorized Total	52.8	55.3	55.0	63.5	71.6	60.9	49.2	60.4	61.9	71.8	61.4	56.1	55.4	28.3	-48.9%	-14.5%	-7.8%
Towables
Travel Trailers	75.3	75.4	78.8	98.6	117.5	114.5	102.2	129.7	139.8	163.6	201.6	216.8	180.2	128.1	-28.9%	-1.7%	2.7%
5th Wheels	45.9	48.5	52.8	56.5	60.5	62.3	54.7	66.1	74.6	91.0	84.8	87.4	81.5	57.0	-30.1%	-5.2%	0.1%
Folding Camper	61.1	57.3	57.6	63.3	60.1	51.3	40.8	44.8	35.7	34.1	32.8	33.7	28.8	18.9	-34.4%	-11.9%	-11.4%
Truck Campers	11.9	11.0	10.3	10.8	11.5	11.1	9.9	10.0	8.8	9.6	8.8	8.7	7.5	4.7	-37.3%	-11.8%	-8.0%
Towables Total	194.2	192.2	199.5	229.2	249.6	239.2	207.6	250.6	258.9	298.3	328.0	346.6	298.0	208.7	-30.0%	-4.2%	-0.9%
RV Total Units	247.0	247.5	254.5	292.7	321.2	300.1	256.8	311.0	320.8	370.1	389.4	402.7	353.4	237.0	-32.9%	-5.9%	-2.1%

	Calendar Year														Annual Growth Rate '08
RV Wholesale Units (K)	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	1 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Motorized	52.8	55.3	55.0	63.5	71.6	60.9	49.2	60.4	61.9	71.8	61.4	56.1	55.4	28.3	-48.9%	-14.5%	-7.8%
Towable	194.2	192.2	199.5	229.2	249.6	239.2	207.6	250.6	258.9	298.3	328.0	346.6	298.0	208.7	-30.0%	-4.2%	-0.9%
Total Units	247.0	247.5	254.5	292.7	321.2	300.1	256.8	311.0	320.8	370.1	389.4	402.7	353.4	237.0	-32.9%	-5.9%	-2.1%
Source: RVIA 2008

Source: RVIA 2009