RVIA Shipments

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RVIA Reports Wholesale Shipments for August

The Recreational Vehicle Industry Association reported wholesale shipments of 17,800 units in August, up 5.3% from the same period in 2008. This is the first positive year-on-year change since August 2005. But while this is a positive sign for the industry, all of the gain came from travel trailer sales. 5th wheels were flat and towables were up 9.9% overall. Motorized RV sales, the hardest hit, continue to show signs of improvement also.

According to the RVIA: "As the current recession is expected to affect all sectors of the economy, RV shipments are expected to be lower in 2009 as well. Credit restrictions are causing RV buyers to delay purchases and RV dealers to keep inventories low. Sales in 2009 will be affected by stringent credit standards, falling employment, and continued declines in household wealth and home prices. Dr. Curtin predicts 2009 shipments will total 130,100." We have seasonally spread the shipments over twelve months (see chart below) and compare it with actual shipments from 2006 through 2008.

RV Investor has forecast wholesale shipments below 100,000 in 2009 making it the worst year since 1980. That translates to a retail sales value of below $5 billion, well below the industry peak of $14.7 billion of 2006, assuming average sales prices remain flat. However, the industry continues to hang much tougher than we forecasted.

RV Wholesale Unit Shipments 2009

	2009 Q1			Q2			Q3			Q4			YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Motorized
Motorhome (Class A)	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5					3.1
Van Conversion (Class B)	0.1	-	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1					0.7
Mini-Motorhome (Class C)	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.5					3.5
Motorized Total	0.7	0.7	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.0	0.9	1.1	-	-	-	-	7.3
Towables
Travel Trailers	4.3	6.2	7.7	7.9	7.9	10.1	8.5	11.1					63.7
5th Wheels	1.4	2.4	2.8	2.9	2.7	3.1	2.7	4.2					22.2
Folding Camper	0.8	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.2					9.2
Truck Campers	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2					1.3
Towables Total	6.6	9.6	11.8	12.3	12.1	14.7	12.6	16.7	-	-	-	-	96.4
RV Total Units 2009	7.3	10.3	12.5	13.3	13.3	15.7	13.5	17.8	-	-	-	-	103.7

	2009 Q1			Q2			Q3			Q4			YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Motorized	0.7	0.7	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.0	0.9	1.1	-	-	-	-	7.3
Towable	6.6	9.6	11.8	12.3	12.1	14.7	12.6	16.7	-	-	-	-	96.4
Total Units 2009	7.3	10.3	12.5	13.3	13.3	15.7	13.5	17.8	-	-	-	-	103.7
Source: RVIA 2009


Δ% from Previous Year	2009 Q1			Q2			Q3			Q4			YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Motorized
Motorhome (Class A)	-77.8%	-83.3%	-82.6%	-83.3%	-66.7%	-71.4%	-55.6%	-44.4%					-74.4%
Van Conversion (Class B)	-50.0%	-100.0%	-50.0%	-66.7%	-50.0%	-50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%					-56.3%
Mini-Motorhome (Class C)	-84.6%	-73.3%	-88.2%	-68.4%	-46.2%	-50.0%	-33.3%	-16.7%					-64.6%
Motorized Total	-78.8%	-80.0%	-83.3%	-75.0%	-55.6%	-61.5%	-43.8%	-35.3%					-69.1%
Towables
Travel Trailers	-66.4%	-58.1%	-51.6%	-52.4%	-41.5%	-23.5%	-10.5%	20.7%					-39.6%
5th Wheels	-76.3%	-64.7%	-62.2%	-59.2%	-55.0%	-43.6%	-38.6%	0.0%					-53.1%
Folding Camper	-65.2%	-55.0%	-45.0%	-58.1%	-43.5%	-27.8%	18.2%	-20.0%					-42.9%
Truck Campers	-83.3%	-80.0%	-66.7%	-66.7%	-60.0%	-50.0%	-80.0%	-33.3%					-67.5%
Towables Total	-69.4%	-60.2%	-54.4%	-55.1%	-45.7%	-29.7%	-18.7%	9.9%					-44.2%
RV Total Units	-70.7%	-62.7%	-58.5%	-57.6%	-46.8%	-33.2%	-21.1%	5.3%					-47.2%

RV Wholesale Unit Shipments 1995 - 2008

	Calendar Year														Annual Growth Rate '08
RV Wholesale Units (K)	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	1 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Motorized
Motorhome (Class A)	33.0	36.5	37.6	42.9	49.4	41.0	33.4	39.6	41.5	46.3	37.9	32.4	32.9	14.9	-54.7%	-18.5%	-10.0%
Van Conversion (Class B)	4.1	4.1	3.8	3.6	3.6	3.4	2.6	2.8	2.1	2.5	2.6	2.8	3.1	1.9	-38.7%	-2.0%	-6.2%
Mini-Motorhome (Class C)	15.7	14.7	13.6	17.0	18.6	16.5	13.2	18.0	18.3	23.0	20.9	20.9	19.4	11.5	-40.7%	-8.9%	-3.8%
Motorized Total	52.8	55.3	55.0	63.5	71.6	60.9	49.2	60.4	61.9	71.8	61.4	56.1	55.4	28.3	-48.9%	-14.5%	-7.8%
Towables
Travel Trailers	75.3	75.4	78.8	98.6	117.5	114.5	102.2	129.7	139.8	163.6	201.6	216.8	180.2	128.1	-28.9%	-1.7%	2.7%
5th Wheels	45.9	48.5	52.8	56.5	60.5	62.3	54.7	66.1	74.6	91.0	84.8	87.4	81.5	57.0	-30.1%	-5.2%	0.1%
Folding Camper	61.1	57.3	57.6	63.3	60.1	51.3	40.8	44.8	35.7	34.1	32.8	33.7	28.8	18.9	-34.4%	-11.9%	-11.4%
Truck Campers	11.9	11.0	10.3	10.8	11.5	11.1	9.9	10.0	8.8	9.6	8.8	8.7	7.5	4.7	-37.3%	-11.8%	-8.0%
Towables Total	194.2	192.2	199.5	229.2	249.6	239.2	207.6	250.6	258.9	298.3	328.0	346.6	298.0	208.7	-30.0%	-4.2%	-0.9%
RV Total Units	247.0	247.5	254.5	292.7	321.2	300.1	256.8	311.0	320.8	370.1	389.4	402.7	353.4	237.0	-32.9%	-5.9%	-2.1%

	Calendar Year														Annual Growth Rate '08
RV Wholesale Units (K)	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	1 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Motorized	52.8	55.3	55.0	63.5	71.6	60.9	49.2	60.4	61.9	71.8	61.4	56.1	55.4	28.3	-48.9%	-14.5%	-7.8%
Towable	194.2	192.2	199.5	229.2	249.6	239.2	207.6	250.6	258.9	298.3	328.0	346.6	298.0	208.7	-30.0%	-4.2%	-0.9%
Total Units	247.0	247.5	254.5	292.7	321.2	300.1	256.8	311.0	320.8	370.1	389.4	402.7	353.4	237.0	-32.9%	-5.9%	-2.1%
Source: RVIA 2008

Source: RVIA 2009