| The recreation vehicle (RV) industry’s
shipments will total approximately 303,100 units in 2009 — nearly
identical to the projected total for 2008 — according to a new forecast
announced at “Forecast 2009,” a June 10 event sponsored by Recreation
Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA). Seasonally
adjusted shipments are expected to reach a low point in the first
quarter of 2009, but are then expected to grow throughout the remainder
of 2009, concentrated first in conventional travel trailers and closely
followed by motorhomes.
Dr. Richard Curtin, Director of Surveys at the
University of
Michigan,
presented his projections about the RV industry’s future at the
industry’s second annual forecast luncheon, held at RVIA’s annual
Committee Week. In addition, RVIA President Richard Coon addressed some
of key challenges to the industry’s long-term profitability, including
vehicle fuel economy standards, and the growing Green movement.
“Like many other producers of discretionary products,
the RV market is facing obstacles,” said Coon. “However, RVIA’s
forecast for year-end 2008 shows shipments reaching nearly 304,000 units
— a respectable total considering our nation’s difficult economic
climate.”
For the $14.5 billion RV industry, Dr. Curtin said
that shipments for the remainder of 2008 will be lower than they were
during five years of consecutive growth, capped in 2006 by a 30-year
high in shipments. Dr. Curtin predicts that shipments will remain flat
in 2009 due to continuing fallout from declining house values, the
credit crisis, rising prices for food and fuel, higher unemployment,
smaller income gains, and sluggish economic growth.
“Consumers are now more concerned about the adequacy
of their savings and reserve funds,” said Dr. Curtin. “As a result, they
are more cautious spenders.”
The industry’s long-term growth prospects remain
excellent, according to Dr. Curtin, who projects that RV ownership will
rise from 7.9 million households in 2005 to 8.5 million in 2010.
“The basic demand for RVs is deeply rooted in family
values, the enduring appeal of the natural environment, and people’s
desire to instill in the next generation their cherished traditions,”
said Dr. Curtin. “These preferences remain unchanged despite the
constantly changing economy.”
Dr. Curtin predicts that the baby-boom generation will
continue to drive growth in the RV market. He also anticipates that RV
of the future will incorporate advanced technologies to offer consumers
more varied features suitable for diverse uses. |
